Dying
It might be tempting to just take a certain percentage of the removed to represent the dead. In dead when looking at historical situations this is probably fine, but with COVID-19 we have live daily data, and concerns about ICU and hospital capacity.
To try to get an understanding of when the deaths happen we will add two new compartments: dying and deceased.
Number of new dying between the two times
=
Number of infectious people
×
Case Fatality Ratio
×
Number of new Removed between the two times
Number of new deceased between the two times
=
Number of people dying between the two times
÷
Time taken to die [post infectiousness]
×
Time difference between the two times
The rest of the "removed" we'll now call "recovered".